The 2022/2023 NFL playoffs are underway, the wild card round has been and gone, and the divisional round provides an interesting glimpse of the future. After the Dallas Cowboys defeated Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the final wild card fixture, it left eight teams and eight quarterbacks dreaming of Super Bowl glory.
I’m sure Brady won’t be losing too much sleep over this, he already has seven Super Bowl rings and he’s got a big decision to make about his future; Tampa Bay, retire, or relocate? Brady continues to defy Father Time, and even at age 45, it won’t be a huge surprise if he decides to play another season. However, the most successful QB in NFL history will be well aware of the young pretenders trying to seize his throne.
With Brady absent from the divisional round we are left with eight quarterbacks all under the age of 30-years-old. Dak Prescott is the eldest of the eight, he’s a mere 29-years-old, but his Dallas Cowboys comprehensively disposed of Brady and the Buccaneers with the 31-14 scoreline slightly flattering the team from Tampa.
I first became aware of this interesting piece of trivia whilst listening to the ‘Around the NFL Podcast’, my number one podcast for all things NFL related. Gregg ‘60% G’ Rosenthal dropped this delightful nugget into conversation during the last episode and I don’t feel it really received the attention it deserved. It’s the first time in 13 years in which there will be no Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers competing to reach a Conference Championship.
I decided to combine a number of different statistics (courtesy of Football Outsiders) to provide a comparative table for each quarterback competing in the 2022/2023 divisional round. Unfortunately, Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) didn’t reach the minimum requirement of 200 regular season passes, but the man known as ‘Mr Irrelevant’ (after being taken with the very last pick of the draft) is rapidly becoming more and more relevant to the 49ers chances of Super Bowl glory.
As an aside, the man he replaced (Jimmy Garoppolo) was ranked No. 1 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) before he suffered a season ending foot injury. Garoppolo had already replaced first choice QB Trey Lance after his season ending ankle injury, so Head Coach and offensive playcaller Kyle Shanahan deserves huge credit for keeping the 49ers on track whilst dealing with severe injuries to a fundamental foundation of the team.
The three categories I decided to use for my grading are DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and QBR. Each number represents the QB placement in a list, i.e Patrick Mahomes is ranked #1 in DYAR & QBR, #3 in DVOA, which provides a top ranked grade of 5.
DYAR gives the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DVOA represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.
In simple terms: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.
Total QBR (listed as just QBR) is a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group. Total QBR is based on the expected points added by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the numbers to a scale of 0-100. QBR is adjusted for opponent and exists back to 2006.
Patrick Mahomes sits atop my grading list which isn’t overly surprising considering he’s thrown for a career high 5,250 yards during the 2022 regular season, whilst throwing 41 touchdowns (TD) and 12 interceptions (INT). He already has one Championship ring and he’s currently the bookies favourite for another MVP season.
Mahomes collaboration with Head Coach, Andy Reid, has produced some of the most scintillating attacking football since the former Texas Tech QB took over from Alex Smith for the 2018 season. Many thought Kansas City would take a step back after trading away Tyreek Hill before the start of the 2022 season, but Mahomes & Reid have modified their system and finished #1 in the DVOA offensive rankings.
No. 2 on my list is the Buffalo Bills QB, Josh Allen. The former Wyoming QB was seen as potential dual threat when drafted No. 7 overall in the 2018 draft, due to his speed and power in the run game. No-one doubted his arm strength, but many questioned whether he could make the step up to the NFL and improve his accuracy against better defences.
JOSHUA BESSEX, AP
Under the guidance of Offensive Coordinator, Brian Daboll, Allen went from strength to strength, harnessing his raw talent and improving his completion percent from 56% in his final college season, to a career high 69% during the Bills 2020 season.
No. 3 on my list is Jalen Hurts, formerly of Alabama & Oklahoma, now the starting QB for the Philadelphia Eagles. Another dual threat QB, Hurts has thrived this season under Head Coach, Nick Sirianni. This season Hurts has combined 22 passing TD with 13 rushing TD, but he’s missed a few games again due to injury. His fitness heading into the playoffs is a major cause for concern for the Eagles, they were ranked as the No. 3 offence (DVOA) during the regular season, but so much is dependent on Hurts firing on all cylinders.
Joe Burrow comes in at No. 4. Burrow was much hyped when the Bengals took him No. 1 overall in the 2020 college draft, and with good reason; he’d just won the Heismann Trophy and the College Football National Championship during a record breaking season representing Louisiana State University (LSU) during his senior year.
At the time the Bengals were a franchise in disarray, perpetual losers on the pitch, and fans questioning the leadership of team owner Mike Brown off of the pitch. However, Burrow and Head Coach, Zac Taylor, have turned the franchise around and find themselves deep into the playoffs for a second season. They nearly won the whole thing last season, eventually losing the Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams, but Bengals fans will be hoping to take things one step further this year.
No. 5 on my list is Jacksonville Jaguars QB, Trevor Lawrence, who won the College 2019 National Championship during his freshman year with Clemson. Lawrence (and the Jaguars) struggled during his rookie NFL season under Head Coach Urban Meyer, but 2022 has seen a huge upturn in Lawrence’s performance and the Jaguars secured a divisional title with Doug Pederson at the helm.
When Lawrence was being discussed in relation to the 2021 draft, the term ‘Generational Talent’ was often used to describe his potential. Comparisons with John Elway, Peyton Manning & Andrew Luck did nothing to dampen the hype, and a prolonged outing in the playoffs will only heighten the expectation. Lawrence showed incredible composure to guide the Jaguars to victory after four first half interceptions versus the LA Chargers during the Wild Card Round, he’s clearly got the mental & physical skills, but can he take the Jaguars all the way?
Dak Prescott had a very different journey to the NFL than first round picks such as Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and Lawrence. The Dallas Cowboys selected Prescott in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, but only after missing out on Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook. Prescott was supposed to provide cover for Tony Romo initially, but after Romo suffered an injury during a pre-season fixture, Prescott found himself as the week one starter; Prescott hasn’t looked back.
He led the Cowboys to a divisional title with a 13-3 record in his rookie season, and the Cowboys remain an offensive powerhouse utilising one of the best offensive lines in football to compliment a fantastic running and passing game, all whilst Prescott pulls the strings. He’s the most experienced QB remaining in the playoffs, he’s got plenty of offensive weapons around him & the #2 ranked defence (DVOA) courtesy of Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn, plus Head Coach Mike McCarthy has won it all before with the Green Bay Packers; This could be the Cowboys’ year…..
Daniel Jones, New York Giants, completes my list at No. 7. The Giants, GM David Gettleman, and Jones were all derided when he was taken 6th overall during the 2019 draft. Initially seen as back-up for Eli Manning, Jones eventually replaced him during his rookie season and has remained starting QB ever since.
Jones’ form initially suffered as a result of some less than stellar coaching, resulting in the Giants declining his fifth year option, but since Brian Daboll has taken over head coaching duties Jones has produced a steady improvement in form. He now presents the Giants with a nice problem at the end of the season, and it’s more than likely Jones will still be a Giant at the start of next season.
I’ve always thought a QB’s landing spot plays such a huge part in his success. The problem with being picked No. 1 overall in the draft is you’re probably going to a very poor side i.e Lawrence or Burrow, but if you’re lucky you land with a team who know how to rebuild a franchise and protect their number one asset. Admittedly, Burrow did suffer a horrific knee injury in his first season as a result of some questionable line play, but the Bengals addressed the OL and took steps to help their QB.
Alternatively you take the Dak Prescott route, get taken lower in the draft but find yourself behind a stellar OL with a fantastic running game (Zeke Elliot & Tony Pollard), very good receivers and backed up with a top notch defence.
Most NFL fans are well aware Tom Brady was taken in the 6th round of the draft, only got his chance to start after Drew Bledsoe suffered a life threatening chest injury, but went on to become widely accepted as the best QB ever. You could make a very strong argument Aaron Rodgers has more natural ability than Brady, but he doesn’t have the rings to match. Neither of them will be adding to their ring collection this season, but it doesn’t mean the future of the NFL QB is looking bleak, quite the contrary. The wealth of young & talented QB’s is there for all to see, the future is bright, but only one can win it all this season; I’m certainly not brave enough to pick one and bet against any of them.